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Math

Equity realization

The share of your raw equity you actually convert

Definition

Raw equity — your win percentage if every card were dealt out with no betting — doesn't say how much of the pot you actually win. Betting sometimes forces you to fold before the river, or stops you from extracting value when you hit. Equity realization measures that yield: the share of the pot actually won, relative to raw equity. The factors are well identified. Position first: in position you control the pot size, see your opponent act, and take free rivers — IP over-realizes, OOP under-realizes. Then playability: suited and connected hands make straights, flushes and draws that play well; dominated offsuit hands mostly make awkward second-best pairs. Initiative and stack depth complete the picture. This concept explains why defending ranges favor suited and connected hands at comparable raw equity, and why a hand that looks "not that bad" on paper can be a clear fold out of position.

Concrete example

Against a BTN open, K3o has more raw equity than 76s. Yet the BB defends 76s far more readily: the suited connector makes straights, flushes and playable pairs — it realizes its equity. K3o, dominated by half the opposing kings, plays miserable pots out of position: a large share of its equity never converts into chips.

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Equity realization in poker — Definition | Forge.poker