What is variance in poker?
Variance measures how scattered your results are around your expected value. In the short run, luck dominates: even a winning player can string together dozens of losing tournaments. In the long run, your ROI (return on investment) takes over.
A simulator doesn't predict the future: it replays your edge thousands of times to reveal the distribution of possible outcomes. You then see that downswings aren't an anomaly — they're mathematically inevitable, even with perfect play.
Why variance is huge in Spin & Go
Spin & Go are hyper-turbo 3-handed tournaments whose prize pool is drawn by a random multiplier. Most of your expectation comes from rare, high-multiplier spins — so you can play hundreds of games without hitting a single one.
The result: longer and deeper downswings than in any other format. That's why strong players think in thousands of games and demand a far bigger bankroll than in cash games.
Risk of ruin and bankroll
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your whole bankroll before your edge plays out. It depends on three things: your ROI, your standard deviation and your bankroll size (in buy-ins). The higher the variance, the more buy-ins you need for the same safety.
| Profile | Risk of ruin | Recommended bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| Cautious | < 1% | 400+ buy-ins |
| Standard | ~ 5% | 200 buy-ins |
| Aggressive | ~ 15% | 100 buy-ins |
These benchmarks assume moderate-ROI Spin & Go. Lower your ROI or raise the variance, and the required bankroll climbs fast. The simulator computes this risk for your numbers.
How to read the graph
Each colored curve is a sample: a simulated sequence of tournaments, as if you lived it. The central straight line is your expectation. The further the curves drift apart, the greater the variance.
Notice how some curves end in the red even though the ROI is a winner: that's the reality of the short run. This is exactly what the simulator helps you anticipate so you don't panic — or mistake bad luck for a leak in your game.
FAQ
What is variance in poker?
Variance is how scattered your results are around your expected value. It reflects that in the short term luck weighs heavily: a winning player can lose over hundreds of hands or tournaments, and a losing one can win. The longer the horizon, the more your real ROI dominates luck.
Why do Spin & Go have so much variance?
Because the prize pool is multiplied by a random factor before each game, and most of the expectation comes from rare but enormous multipliers. You can therefore play for a long time without hitting a big multiplier, which creates long, deep downswings, far more pronounced than in cash games or standard MTTs.
How many buy-ins of bankroll for Spin & Go?
Because of the high variance, 100 buy-ins is typical for an aggressive profile, 200 for standard play, and 400+ to be very cautious or run your edge calmly. The lower your ROI, the more you need. The simulator computes the exact risk of ruin for your bankroll.
Can a winning player lose over 1,000 games?
Yes, absolutely. With a moderate ROI and Spin & Go variance, finishing 1,000 tournaments below break-even is statistically possible. That's why a player is judged over tens of thousands of games, not a short sample — and why a sufficient bankroll is essential.