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Tournament

ICM

Independent Chip Model — the real value of tournament chips

Definition

ICM (Independent Chip Model) is a mathematical model that converts tournament chips into real money value, based on the prize pool, the paid places and each player's current stack. It's a fundamental concept for understanding tournament decisions. Under ICM, chips don't have linear value. Doubling your chips doesn't double your real equity because the value curve is concave: each additional chip is worth less than the previous one. Chips lost are worth more than chips won. That's why near the bubble or late in a tournament, hands that are profitable in chip-EV become -EV in $EV. ICM justifies very tight folds in bubble or final-table situations, even with good hands. Understanding ICM is essential for MTTs, Spin & Gos (with their variable prize pool), and SNGs.

Concrete example

Bubble of a tournament paying 3 out of 4 players. You have 20bb. Calling an all-in with AA can be -$EV under ICM if several short stacks are likely to bust before you, guaranteeing you the paid spot by folding.

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ICM in poker — Definition | Forge.poker